Synthetic Controls

Fiji Results

combine estimates

	Stacking Estimate (95% CI)	SC Estimate (95% CI)	Time trend Estimate (95% CI)	Time trend (no offset) Estimate (95% CI)	STL+PCA Estimate (95% CI)
ac_pneumonia_Age1	0.93 (0.76, 1.17)	0.93 (0.77, 1.14)	0.84 (0.58, 1.21)	0.93 (0.67, 1.27)	0.95 (0.77, 1.15)
ac_pneumonia_Age1_0	0.94 (0.71, 1.2)	0.95 (0.77, 1.17)	0.79 (0.54, 1.19)	0.89 (0.64, 1.28)	0.92 (0.72, 1.16)
ac_pneumonia_Age1_1	0.87 (0.58, 1.26)	0.95 (0.76, 1.25)	0.85 (0.57, 1.28)	0.99 (0.73, 1.34)	0.91 (0.76, 1.1)
ac_pneumonia_Age2	0.84 (0.59, 1.21)	0.65 (0.53, 0.8)	0.67 (0.48, 0.96)	0.9 (0.63, 1.26)	0.84 (0.63, 1.14)
ac_pneumonia_Age3	0.56 (0.42, 0.79)	0.55 (0.43, 0.7)	0.37 (0.25, 0.56)	0.6 (0.4, 0.92)	0.53 (0.31, 0.92)
ac_pneumonia_Age4	0.59 (0.4, 0.86)	0.66 (0.46, 0.94)	0.43 (0.27, 0.69)	0.5 (0.31, 0.8)	0.57 (0.42, 0.81)
ac_pneumonia_Age5	0.89 (0.64, 1.2)	0.97 (0.77, 1.18)	0.86 (0.62, 1.2)	0.88 (0.65, 1.18)	1.07 (0.8, 1.42)
ac_pneumonia_Age6	1.11 (0.87, 1.48)	1.21 (0.95, 1.86)	1.04 (0.73, 1.47)	1.23 (0.89, 1.71)	1.1 (0.86, 1.4)
HP_all_raw_Age1	0.73 (0.55, 0.96)	0.74 (0.58, 0.94)	0.62 (0.37, 1.03)	0.69 (0.44, 1.12)	0.72 (0.53, 0.98)
RP_all_raw_Age1	0.7 (0.51, 0.97)	0.69 (0.36, 1.12)	0.38 (0.21, 0.67)	0.42 (0.23, 0.72)	0.7 (0.52, 0.95)
VS_SP_all_raw_Age1	0.72 (0.52, 1.28)	0.69 (0.52, 0.89)	0.86 (0.54, 1.36)	0.95 (0.61, 1.48)	0.72 (0.55, 0.95)

Plot of Rate ratios, with size proportional to cross validation weights

Weights for each of the models from cross validation

groups	Synthetic Controls	Time trend	Time trend (no offset)	STL+PCA
ac_pneumonia_Age1	0.889	0.000	0.111	0.000
ac_pneumonia_Age1_0	0.722	0.000	0.278	0.000
ac_pneumonia_Age1_1	0.000	0.789	0.000	0.211
ac_pneumonia_Age2	0.126	0.006	0.470	0.398
ac_pneumonia_Age3	0.790	0.000	0.210	0.000
ac_pneumonia_Age4	0.249	0.000	0.081	0.671
ac_pneumonia_Age5	0.152	0.848	0.000	0.000
ac_pneumonia_Age6	0.116	0.000	0.000	0.884
HP_all_raw_Age1	0.909	0.000	0.091	0.000
RP_all_raw_Age1	0.064	0.000	0.000	0.936
VS_SP_all_raw_Age1	0.715	0.000	0.285	0.000

Inclusion Probabilities

Group	Greatest Inclusion Variable	Greatest Inclusion Probability	Second Greatest Inclusion Variable	Second Greatest Inclusion Probability	Third Greatest Inclusion Variable	Third Greatest Inclusion Probability
ac_pneumonia_Age1	ach_noj	0.0832801	R00_R99	0.0744014	Q00_Q99	0.0732992
ac_pneumonia_Age1_0	R00_R99	0.1509395	ach_noj	0.0859740	L00_L99	0.0772667
ac_pneumonia_Age1_1	ach_noj	0.5578746	R00_R99	0.1256704	L00_L99	0.0994096
ac_pneumonia_Age2	L00_L99	0.2114351	ach_noj	0.0838390	R00_R99	0.0631125
ac_pneumonia_Age3	L00_L99	0.1929092	R00_R99	0.1272634	K00_K95	0.1109839
ac_pneumonia_Age4	M00_M99	0.6136458	N00_N99	0.5313322	pandemic	0.4176032
ac_pneumonia_Age5	H00_H99	0.1062404	N00_N99	0.0917475	A00_B99_norota	0.0764902
ac_pneumonia_Age6	H00_H99	0.9084323	ach_noj	0.1575563	E00_E89	0.0986882
HP_all_raw_Age1	L00_L99	0.7442489	R00_R99	0.1255102	ach_noj	0.1177392
RP_all_raw_Age1	ach_noj	0.5526823	A00_B99_norota	0.1954532	R00_R99	0.1434715
VS_SP_all_raw_Age1	ach_noj	0.0911995	R00_R99	0.0765622	A00_B99_norota	0.0760090

Weight Sensitivity Analysis

	Estimate (95% CI)	Top Control 1	Inclusion Probability of Control 1	Control 1 Estimate (95% CI)	Top Control 2	Inclusion Probability of Control 2	Control 2 Estimate (95% CI)	Top Control 3	Inclusion Probability of Control 3	Control 3 Estimate (95% CI)
ac_pneumonia_Age1	0.93 (0.77, 1.14)	R00_R99	0.07	0.94 (0.78, 1.2)	Q00_Q99	0.07	0.94 (0.77, 1.21)	A00_B99_norota	0.07	0.94 (0.77, 1.18)
ac_pneumonia_Age1_0	0.95 (0.77, 1.17)	R00_R99	0.15	0.95 (0.73, 1.16)	L00_L99	0.08	0.94 (0.74, 1.17)	A00_B99_norota	0.08	0.95 (0.74, 1.18)
ac_pneumonia_Age1_1	0.95 (0.76, 1.25)	R00_R99	0.13	0.97 (0.76, 1.24)	L00_L99	0.1	0.97 (0.76, 1.26)	pandemic	0.07	1.01 (0.78, 1.28)
ac_pneumonia_Age2	0.65 (0.53, 0.8)	L00_L99	0.21	0.65 (0.5, 0.82)	R00_R99	0.06	0.65 (0.48, 0.8)	A00_B99_norota	0.06	0.65 (0.5, 0.81)
ac_pneumonia_Age3	0.55 (0.43, 0.7)	L00_L99	0.19	0.55 (0.4, 0.7)	R00_R99	0.13	0.54 (0.39, 0.7)	K00_K95	0.11	0.54 (0.4, 0.7)
ac_pneumonia_Age4	0.66 (0.46, 0.94)	M00_M99	0.61	0.74 (0.54, 1)	N00_N99	0.53	0.72 (0.51, 0.96)	pandemic	0.42	0.73 (0.5, 0.95)
ac_pneumonia_Age5	0.97 (0.77, 1.18)	H00_H99	0.11	0.99 (0.81, 1.3)	N00_N99	0.09	0.98 (0.81, 1.27)	A00_B99_norota	0.08	0.99 (0.82, 1.29)
ac_pneumonia_Age6	1.21 (0.95, 1.86)	H00_H99	0.91	1.67 (1.29, 2.35)	E00_E89	0.1	1.74 (1.31, 2.45)	E10_E14	0.09	1.67 (1.3, 2.41)
HP_all_raw_Age1	0.74 (0.58, 0.94)	L00_L99	0.74	0.72 (0.55, 0.97)	R00_R99	0.13	0.72 (0.57, 0.98)	A00_B99_norota	0.1	0.72 (0.56, 1.01)
RP_all_raw_Age1	0.69 (0.36, 1.12)	A00_B99_norota	0.2	0.7 (0.37, 1.13)	R00_R99	0.14	0.65 (0.37, 1.12)	L00_L99	0.14	0.65 (0.38, 1.1)
VS_SP_all_raw_Age1	0.69 (0.52, 0.89)	R00_R99	0.08	0.68 (0.51, 0.92)	A00_B99_norota	0.08	0.69 (0.52, 0.93)	Q00_Q99	0.08	0.69 (0.52, 0.96)

Plots

ac_pneumonia_Age1

ac_pneumonia_Age1_0

ac_pneumonia_Age1_1

ac_pneumonia_Age2

ac_pneumonia_Age3

ac_pneumonia_Age4

ac_pneumonia_Age5

ac_pneumonia_Age6

HP_all_raw_Age1

RP_all_raw_Age1

VS_SP_all_raw_Age1