Fiji Results

combine estimates

Stacking Estimate (95% CI) SC Estimate (95% CI) Time trend Estimate (95% CI) Time trend (no offset) Estimate (95% CI) STL+PCA Estimate (95% CI)
ac_pneumonia_Age1 0.93 (0.76, 1.17) 0.93 (0.77, 1.14) 0.84 (0.58, 1.21) 0.93 (0.67, 1.27) 0.95 (0.77, 1.15)
ac_pneumonia_Age1_0 0.94 (0.71, 1.2) 0.95 (0.77, 1.17) 0.79 (0.54, 1.19) 0.89 (0.64, 1.28) 0.92 (0.72, 1.16)
ac_pneumonia_Age1_1 0.87 (0.58, 1.26) 0.95 (0.76, 1.25) 0.85 (0.57, 1.28) 0.99 (0.73, 1.34) 0.91 (0.76, 1.1)
ac_pneumonia_Age2 0.84 (0.59, 1.21) 0.65 (0.53, 0.8) 0.67 (0.48, 0.96) 0.9 (0.63, 1.26) 0.84 (0.63, 1.14)
ac_pneumonia_Age3 0.56 (0.42, 0.79) 0.55 (0.43, 0.7) 0.37 (0.25, 0.56) 0.6 (0.4, 0.92) 0.53 (0.31, 0.92)
ac_pneumonia_Age4 0.59 (0.4, 0.86) 0.66 (0.46, 0.94) 0.43 (0.27, 0.69) 0.5 (0.31, 0.8) 0.57 (0.42, 0.81)
ac_pneumonia_Age5 0.89 (0.64, 1.2) 0.97 (0.77, 1.18) 0.86 (0.62, 1.2) 0.88 (0.65, 1.18) 1.07 (0.8, 1.42)
ac_pneumonia_Age6 1.11 (0.87, 1.48) 1.21 (0.95, 1.86) 1.04 (0.73, 1.47) 1.23 (0.89, 1.71) 1.1 (0.86, 1.4)
HP_all_raw_Age1 0.73 (0.55, 0.96) 0.74 (0.58, 0.94) 0.62 (0.37, 1.03) 0.69 (0.44, 1.12) 0.72 (0.53, 0.98)
RP_all_raw_Age1 0.7 (0.51, 0.97) 0.69 (0.36, 1.12) 0.38 (0.21, 0.67) 0.42 (0.23, 0.72) 0.7 (0.52, 0.95)
VS_SP_all_raw_Age1 0.72 (0.52, 1.28) 0.69 (0.52, 0.89) 0.86 (0.54, 1.36) 0.95 (0.61, 1.48) 0.72 (0.55, 0.95)

Plot of Rate ratios, with size proportional to cross validation weights

Weights for each of the models from cross validation

groups Synthetic Controls Time trend Time trend (no offset) STL+PCA
ac_pneumonia_Age1 0.889 0.000 0.111 0.000
ac_pneumonia_Age1_0 0.722 0.000 0.278 0.000
ac_pneumonia_Age1_1 0.000 0.789 0.000 0.211
ac_pneumonia_Age2 0.126 0.006 0.470 0.398
ac_pneumonia_Age3 0.790 0.000 0.210 0.000
ac_pneumonia_Age4 0.249 0.000 0.081 0.671
ac_pneumonia_Age5 0.152 0.848 0.000 0.000
ac_pneumonia_Age6 0.116 0.000 0.000 0.884
HP_all_raw_Age1 0.909 0.000 0.091 0.000
RP_all_raw_Age1 0.064 0.000 0.000 0.936
VS_SP_all_raw_Age1 0.715 0.000 0.285 0.000

Inclusion Probabilities

Group Greatest Inclusion Variable Greatest Inclusion Probability Second Greatest Inclusion Variable Second Greatest Inclusion Probability Third Greatest Inclusion Variable Third Greatest Inclusion Probability
ac_pneumonia_Age1 ach_noj 0.0832801 R00_R99 0.0744014 Q00_Q99 0.0732992
ac_pneumonia_Age1_0 R00_R99 0.1509395 ach_noj 0.0859740 L00_L99 0.0772667
ac_pneumonia_Age1_1 ach_noj 0.5578746 R00_R99 0.1256704 L00_L99 0.0994096
ac_pneumonia_Age2 L00_L99 0.2114351 ach_noj 0.0838390 R00_R99 0.0631125
ac_pneumonia_Age3 L00_L99 0.1929092 R00_R99 0.1272634 K00_K95 0.1109839
ac_pneumonia_Age4 M00_M99 0.6136458 N00_N99 0.5313322 pandemic 0.4176032
ac_pneumonia_Age5 H00_H99 0.1062404 N00_N99 0.0917475 A00_B99_norota 0.0764902
ac_pneumonia_Age6 H00_H99 0.9084323 ach_noj 0.1575563 E00_E89 0.0986882
HP_all_raw_Age1 L00_L99 0.7442489 R00_R99 0.1255102 ach_noj 0.1177392
RP_all_raw_Age1 ach_noj 0.5526823 A00_B99_norota 0.1954532 R00_R99 0.1434715
VS_SP_all_raw_Age1 ach_noj 0.0911995 R00_R99 0.0765622 A00_B99_norota 0.0760090

Weight Sensitivity Analysis

Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 1 Inclusion Probability of Control 1 Control 1 Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 2 Inclusion Probability of Control 2 Control 2 Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 3 Inclusion Probability of Control 3 Control 3 Estimate (95% CI)
ac_pneumonia_Age1 0.93 (0.77, 1.14) R00_R99 0.07 0.94 (0.78, 1.2) Q00_Q99 0.07 0.94 (0.77, 1.21) A00_B99_norota 0.07 0.94 (0.77, 1.18)
ac_pneumonia_Age1_0 0.95 (0.77, 1.17) R00_R99 0.15 0.95 (0.73, 1.16) L00_L99 0.08 0.94 (0.74, 1.17) A00_B99_norota 0.08 0.95 (0.74, 1.18)
ac_pneumonia_Age1_1 0.95 (0.76, 1.25) R00_R99 0.13 0.97 (0.76, 1.24) L00_L99 0.1 0.97 (0.76, 1.26) pandemic 0.07 1.01 (0.78, 1.28)
ac_pneumonia_Age2 0.65 (0.53, 0.8) L00_L99 0.21 0.65 (0.5, 0.82) R00_R99 0.06 0.65 (0.48, 0.8) A00_B99_norota 0.06 0.65 (0.5, 0.81)
ac_pneumonia_Age3 0.55 (0.43, 0.7) L00_L99 0.19 0.55 (0.4, 0.7) R00_R99 0.13 0.54 (0.39, 0.7) K00_K95 0.11 0.54 (0.4, 0.7)
ac_pneumonia_Age4 0.66 (0.46, 0.94) M00_M99 0.61 0.74 (0.54, 1) N00_N99 0.53 0.72 (0.51, 0.96) pandemic 0.42 0.73 (0.5, 0.95)
ac_pneumonia_Age5 0.97 (0.77, 1.18) H00_H99 0.11 0.99 (0.81, 1.3) N00_N99 0.09 0.98 (0.81, 1.27) A00_B99_norota 0.08 0.99 (0.82, 1.29)
ac_pneumonia_Age6 1.21 (0.95, 1.86) H00_H99 0.91 1.67 (1.29, 2.35) E00_E89 0.1 1.74 (1.31, 2.45) E10_E14 0.09 1.67 (1.3, 2.41)
HP_all_raw_Age1 0.74 (0.58, 0.94) L00_L99 0.74 0.72 (0.55, 0.97) R00_R99 0.13 0.72 (0.57, 0.98) A00_B99_norota 0.1 0.72 (0.56, 1.01)
RP_all_raw_Age1 0.69 (0.36, 1.12) A00_B99_norota 0.2 0.7 (0.37, 1.13) R00_R99 0.14 0.65 (0.37, 1.12) L00_L99 0.14 0.65 (0.38, 1.1)
VS_SP_all_raw_Age1 0.69 (0.52, 0.89) R00_R99 0.08 0.68 (0.51, 0.92) A00_B99_norota 0.08 0.69 (0.52, 0.93) Q00_Q99 0.08 0.69 (0.52, 0.96)

Plots

ac_pneumonia_Age1

ac_pneumonia_Age1_0

ac_pneumonia_Age1_1

ac_pneumonia_Age2

ac_pneumonia_Age3

ac_pneumonia_Age4

ac_pneumonia_Age5

ac_pneumonia_Age6

HP_all_raw_Age1

RP_all_raw_Age1

VS_SP_all_raw_Age1